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3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 80

Churchill Downs · Race 9 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

29%

Place Prob

21%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength74%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Keeneland 04/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 81 · 6f Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/10/2025 · OR 81 par4/10C6OR 81C9 @ Churchill Downs 14/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 74 · 6f110y Fas 119 · below its mark14/11/2025 · OR 74 parC6 @ Turfway Park 13/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 70 · 6f 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/12/2025 · OR 70 par13/12C6OR 70C6 @ Turfway Park 08/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 71 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/02/2026 · OR 71 parC6 @ Turfway Park 07/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 77 · 5f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/03/2026 · OR 77 par7/03C6OR 77C6 @ Keeneland 03/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 80 · 1m Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/04/2026 · OR 80 parC6 @ Churchill Downs 28/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 84 · 5f Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/06/2026 · OR 84 par28/06C6OR 84C9 @ Ellis Park 18/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 80 · 6f Fas 119 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 80 parC9 @ Ellis Park 17/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 82 · 6f Slo 119 · below its mark17/08/2026 · OR 82 par17/08C9OR 82projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-17Ellis Park?2nd2nd0
2026-07-18Ellis Park?3rd3rd0
2026-06-28Churchill Downs?12th9th+3
2026-04-03Keeneland?10th7th+3
2026-03-07Turfway Park?3rd0th+3
2026-02-08Turfway Park?3rd0th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/108/0228/0617/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength53%

Delivery trend -0.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/10/20258th33/10%30%+0.30
14/11/20257th13/266%25%-0.41
13/12/20256th16/116%55%+0.39
08/02/20263rd9/153%78%+0.25
07/03/20263rd3/184%71%-0.13
03/04/202610th50/10%18%+0.18
28/06/202612th33/10%0%0.00
18/07/20263rd6/168%82%+0.13
17/08/20262nd11/486%89%+0.03