3
Daytona Moonshine
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 74
Delaware Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength56%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/03/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 19/03/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 12/04/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 23/05/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 13/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 22/08/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 09/09/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |