4
Fratellone
3yo Colt · 8-7 · OR 76
Delaware Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
8/5
Win Prob
57%
Place Prob
37%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength76%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/03/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 03/04/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 17/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 23/05/2026 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 08/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 28/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 13/09/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |