1
Moral Power
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 71
Delaware Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Delaware Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-02-20 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-11 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-02 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength85%
Delivery trend +5.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 89% | +0.06 |
| 16/10/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 19/12/2025 | 6th | 15/8 | 90% | 38% | -0.53 |
| 02/01/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 11/01/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 20/02/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/04/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/08/2026 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 09/09/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |