Collection Day
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 90
Delaware Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 10/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 88% | +0.19 |
| 13/05/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 28/05/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 24/06/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 40% | -0.50 |
| 22/07/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 43% | -0.44 |
| 17/09/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |