Final Drama
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 85
Delaware Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#6
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 25% | -0.66 |
| 04/03/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 28/03/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 24/04/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 24/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 22/07/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 07/08/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 28/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 67% | -0.25 |