8
Kerness
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 92
Delaware Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
81%
Place Prob
49%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-10-27 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2024-09-18 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength75%
Delivery trend +5.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/12/2023 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 14/02/2024 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 16/08/2024 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 18/09/2024 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 27/10/2024 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |
| 02/08/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 2/7 | 99% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 21/08/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 57% | -0.28 |