6
Morning Thoughts
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 84
Delaware Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Colonial Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Laurel Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength59%
Delivery trend +6.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/02/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 22/03/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 04/04/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 17/04/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 02/05/2026 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 14/06/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 22/08/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |