2
Uninvited Guest
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 80
Delaware Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength43%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 20/09/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 44% | -0.03 |
| 04/10/2025 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 13% | -0.59 |
| 21/05/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 18/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 03/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 24/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 86% | -0.08 |
| 18/08/2026 | 2nd | 8/13 | 97% | 75% | -0.22 |
| 05/09/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |