10
Mom Esterina
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 45
Delaware Park · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
23%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-08-08 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +11.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 08/08/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 13/09/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 28/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/07/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 27/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |