2
Federal Exchange
7yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 79
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
58%
Place Prob
45%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength86%
Delivery trend -7.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 29/03/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 15/04/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 20/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 03/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 18/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 01/07/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 13/08/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 27/08/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |