4
Trophy Room
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 78
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-07-31 | Penn National | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength24%
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 23/05/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 06/06/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 31/07/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 20/02/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 06/03/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 18/03/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 09/04/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 10/09/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |