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Bourbon N Lace

4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 88

Delaware Park · Race 7 - Ratings Optional Claiming · 1m

#5

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength52%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Laurel Park 27/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 75 · 6f 122 · below its mark27/12/2025 · OR 75 par27/12C7OR 75C7 @ Laurel Park 17/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 73 · 1m 126 · below its mark17/01/2026 · OR 73 parC8 @ Aqueduct 15/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 77 · 1m 123 · beat its mark15/02/2026 · OR 77 par15/02C8OR 77C5 @ Laurel Park 22/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 79 · 7f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/02/2026 · OR 79 parC5 @ Laurel Park 22/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 77 · 1m110y 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/03/2026 · OR 77 par22/03C5OR 77C5 @ Laurel Park 10/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 80 · 7f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 80 parC7 @ Delaware Park 21/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 80 · 1m 121 · below its mark21/05/2026 · OR 80 par21/05C7OR 80C7 @ Saratoga 26/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 80 · 1m1f Fas 126 · below its mark26/07/2026 · OR 80 parC7 @ Delaware Park 07/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 87 · 1m70y 121 · below its mark07/08/2026 · OR 87 par7/08C7OR 87projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-07Delaware Park?4th4th0
2026-07-26Saratoga?5th5th0
2026-05-21Delaware Park?2nd2nd0
2026-04-10Laurel Park?3rd1st+2
2026-03-22Laurel Park?3rd1st+2
2026-02-22Laurel Park?5th3rd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/1222/0221/057/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength97%

Delivery trend -0.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/12/20254th12/137%63%+0.26
17/01/20266th9/153%44%-0.08
15/02/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
22/02/20265th6/168%33%-0.35
22/03/20263rd14/126%50%+0.24
10/04/20263rd25/10%50%+0.50
21/05/20262nd12/137%75%+0.38
26/07/20265th33/10%33%+0.33
07/08/20264th4/179%40%-0.39