3
Delray
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 86
Delaware Park · Race 7 - Ratings Optional Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength64%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-12-07 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-05-16 | Pimlico | ? | 10th | 3rd | +6 |
| 2025-03-28 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-01-30 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength80%
Delivery trend -3.7% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/2024 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 01/01/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 30/01/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 28/03/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 16/05/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 07/12/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |
| 24/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 13/08/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |