5
Luminous Secret
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 78
Delaware Park · Race 7 - Ratings Optional Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
87%
Place Prob
62%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-14 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength91%
Delivery trend +5.7% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/03/2026 | 3rd | 4/6 | 96% | 60% | -0.36 |
| 13/05/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 28/05/2026 | 1st | 1/5 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 31/07/2026 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 40% | -0.55 |
| 14/08/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 03/09/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |