1
Magnolia Wind
6yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 77
Delaware Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Delaware Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength20%
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 18/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 08/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 01/08/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 38% | -0.34 |
| 09/09/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 16/09/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |