Three Polks
6yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 81
Delaware Park · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-10-30 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-08-29 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 29/05/2025 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 26/06/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 29/08/2025 | 4th | 6/5 | 94% | 0% | -0.94 |
| 30/10/2025 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 25% | -0.66 |
| 28/05/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 24/06/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 02/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 13/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |