12
Virginia Bluebell
3yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 58
Durbanville · Lucky Fish Gates Of Olympus Maiden Plate (F & M) · 6f 47y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
60%
Place Prob
51%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼3
Strength95%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +2.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | Kenilworth | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Kenilworth | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Kenilworth | ? | 11th | 2nd | +7 |
| 2026-01-10 | Kenilworth | ? | 6th | 2nd | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 9-13 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength7%
Delivery trend -30.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 55% | +0.39 |
| 31/01/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 15/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 89% | +0.02 |
| 19/05/2026 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |