3
Ozark
6yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 54
Durbanville · Join The Passion Apprentice Class 5 · 6f 47y
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.9
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Durbanville | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Durbanville | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Kenilworth | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Kenilworth | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Kenilworth | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Durbanville | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength50%
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 21/12/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 25/02/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 13% | -0.59 |
| 21/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 18/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 83% | +0.41 |
| 19/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 82% | -0.01 |
| 16/06/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 07/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 06/09/2026 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |