1
Typically French
6yo Gelding · 8-3 · OR 38
Durbanville · Join The Passion Apprentice Class 5 · 6f 47y
#7
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Durbanville | ? | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Durbanville | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Kenilworth | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Kenilworth | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Kenilworth | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-21 | Durbanville | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength76%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 08/10/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 29/10/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 21/01/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 22/02/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 27/04/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 60% | +0.55 |
| 24/05/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 75% | +0.70 |
| 06/09/2026 | 12th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |