6
Amayah
4yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 76
Durbanville · Lucky Fish Diamond Riches Class 4 (F & M) · 7f 210y
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.4
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Durbanville | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Kenilworth | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Kenilworth | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Durbanville | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-21 | Durbanville | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-10-05 | Durbanville | ? | 5th | 10th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength47%
Delivery trend -7.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06/2025 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 13/08/2025 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 75% | +0.33 |
| 07/09/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |
| 05/10/2025 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 60% | -0.30 |
| 21/01/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 14/02/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 18/04/2026 | 7th | 7/4 | 91% | 33% | -0.57 |
| 05/08/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 11% | -0.63 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |