8
Beneath The Clouds
5yo Mare · 9-10 · OR 78
Durbanville · Lucky Fish Diamond Riches Class 4 (F & M) · 7f 210y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength74%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.9
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Fairview | ? | 6th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-06-21 | Kenilworth | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Kenilworth | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Kenilworth | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Kenilworth | ? | 6th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-12-17 | Kenilworth | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength65%
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 89% | +0.01 |
| 25/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 78% | -0.08 |
| 15/11/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 17/12/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |
| 31/01/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 01/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 90% | +0.29 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 14/08/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 38% | -0.39 |