3
Caesar's Ransom
4yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 74
Durbanville · Race Coast Incentives Powered By Hollywoodbets Class 4 · 7f 210y
#7
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -2.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Kenilworth | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Kenilworth | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Kenilworth | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Kenilworth | ? | 10th | 15th | −4 |
| 2025-12-10 | Kenilworth | ? | 4th | 9th | −4 |
| 2025-11-26 | Kenilworth | ? | 4th | 9th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength1%
Delivery trend -4.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 08/11/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 36% | -0.11 |
| 26/11/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 10/12/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 77% | +0.61 |
| 30/03/2026 | 10th | 17/2 | 55% | 10% | -0.45 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 02/06/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 38% | -0.20 |
| 12/08/2026 | 11th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |