4
Captains Alliance
4yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 76
Durbanville · Race Coast Incentives Powered By Hollywoodbets Class 4 · 7f 210y
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.1
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Kenilworth | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Durbanville | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Kenilworth | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-02 | Kenilworth | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Kenilworth | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Kenilworth | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength83%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 25/02/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 38% | +0.32 |
| 25/03/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 15/04/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 38% | -0.23 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 89% | +0.31 |
| 12/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 90% | +0.16 |