8
Diamond Rock
6yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 61
Durbanville · Race Coast Incentives Powered By Hollywoodbets Class 4 · 7f 210y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.1
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Durbanville | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-08-12 | Kenilworth | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Durbanville | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Durbanville | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Kenilworth | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Kenilworth | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength86%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06/2025 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 22/02/2026 | 12th | 100/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 25/03/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 02/06/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 14/07/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 78% | +0.62 |
| 12/08/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 06/09/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |