IvyArcIvyArc
2

Balzi Rossi

4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 67

Durbanville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future Class 5 · 7f 210y

#7

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Creditable second of 8 in minor event (25/2) at Kenilworth (9f, good to soft) 39 days ago. Must improve.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength48%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.6
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Durbanville 09/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 1269/09C8C8 @ Kenilworth 10/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 126C8 @ Kenilworth 26/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 12826/11C8C5 @ Kenilworth 17/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 1m209y Gd 136 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Kenilworth 31/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS31/01C5C5 @ Kenilworth 06/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 1m209y Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Kenilworth 16/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 7f210y Sft 13016/055C5 @ Durbanville 14/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 1m1f208y Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Kenilworth 15/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m209y GS 126 · HIGHER CLASS15/08C5projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-15Kenilworth?2nd1st+1
2026-07-14Durbanville?4th3rd+1
2026-05-16Kenilworth53rd3rd0
2026-04-06Kenilworth?7th6th+1
2026-01-31Kenilworth?9th8th+1
2025-12-17Kenilworth?3rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0917/1216/0515/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength85%

Delivery trend +2.9% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/09/20255th9/276%50%-0.26
10/11/20253rd9/276%82%+0.06
26/11/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
17/12/20253rd4/179%71%-0.08
31/01/20269th15/261%43%-0.18
06/04/20267th10/147%25%-0.22
16/05/20263rd9/276%67%-0.10
14/07/20264th13/266%50%-0.16
15/08/20262nd12/137%86%+0.49