IvyArcIvyArc
5

Fortune One

4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 68

Durbanville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future Class 5 · 7f 210y

#10

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course winner. Winner here in March. 33/1, fifth of 7 in handicap at this course (7f, good) 60 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Kenilworth 12/06/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 4f214y Sft 13212/06C8C8 @ Durbanville 15/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 6f47y Gd 130C8 @ Kenilworth 26/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 12826/11C8C8 @ Kenilworth 25/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 132C8 @ Durbanville 21/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 6f47y Gd 13221/03C85 @ Kenilworth 19/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 5f212y GS 1385 @ Durbanville 27/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 13827/0655 @ Durbanville 25/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 13625/075projClass-projected finish: 10th of 11
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25Durbanville55th5th0
2026-06-27Durbanville56th6th0
2026-05-19Kenilworth510th10th0
2026-03-21Durbanville?1st5th−3
2026-02-25Kenilworth?2nd6th−3
2025-11-26Kenilworth?7th11th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0625/0227/0625/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength58%

Delivery trend -2.8% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/06/20258th16/116%13%-0.03
15/10/20254th18/15%67%+0.61
26/11/20257th22/10%33%+0.33
25/02/20262nd4/179%86%+0.07
21/03/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
19/05/202610th5/174%18%-0.56
27/06/20266th20/10%17%+0.17
25/07/20265th28/10%33%+0.33