10
Havoc
3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 78
Durbanville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future Class 5 · 7f 210y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
42%
Place Prob
31%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 8.6 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today: 5
Class gap: -3.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Durbanville | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-25 | Durbanville | ? | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-07-07 | Durbanville | ? | 4th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-06-23 | Kenilworth | ? | 5th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-04-18 | Kenilworth | ? | 10th | 14th | −3 |
| 2026-04-06 | Kenilworth | ? | 8th | 12th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength80%
Delivery trend +2.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 13% | +0.07 |
| 18/04/2026 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 23/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 07/07/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 88% | +0.24 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |