11
Noon Day Gun
6yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 49
Durbanville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future Class 5 · 7f 210y
#8
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength58%
What the class read says
Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Durbanville | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Durbanville | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Durbanville | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Kenilworth | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Kenilworth | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Durbanville | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 7-11 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength9%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 03/12/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 22/02/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 18/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 27/04/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 24/05/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 27/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 25/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 22/08/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |