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5yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 68

Durbanville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future Class 5 · 7f 210y

#4

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

28/10, good second of 9 in minor event at Kenilworth (9.7f, good to soft). Off 122 days. Can give a good account without posing serious threat to principals.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength58%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kenilworth 28/04/2025 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASS28/0444 @ Kenilworth 01/06/2025 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR - · 1m99y Sft 126 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Kenilworth 22/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS22/1144 @ Kenilworth 06/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Kenilworth 04/01/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASS4/014C5 @ Kenilworth 31/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR - · 1m1f208y Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Kenilworth 06/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 1m209y Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS6/04C5C5 @ Kenilworth 03/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR - · 1m209y Sft 126 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Kenilworth 24/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 1m1f153y GS 126 · HIGHER CLASS24/05C5projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-24Kenilworth?2nd1st+1
2026-05-03Kenilworth?2nd1st+1
2026-04-06Kenilworth?6th5th+1
2026-01-31Kenilworth?2nd1st+1
2026-01-04Kenilworth410th9th+1
2025-12-06Kenilworth45th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/046/126/0424/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/04/20255th15/261%69%+0.09
01/06/20258th17/255%53%-0.02
22/11/20256th14/126%44%+0.18
06/12/20255th13/266%50%-0.16
04/01/202610th12/137%18%-0.19
31/01/20262nd20/10%92%+0.92
06/04/20266th10/382%38%-0.45
03/05/20262nd11/142%92%+0.50
24/05/20262nd10/382%88%+0.05