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3

Smart Horse

5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 47

Durbanville · Hollywoodbets Bright Future Class 5 · 7f 210y

#11

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner. Ninth of 13 in minor event (10/1) at Kenilworth (9f, good to soft) 49 days ago. Can give a good account without posing serious threat to principals.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength44%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Durbanville 22/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASS22/094C5 @ Durbanville 18/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Durbanville 17/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 129 · HIGHER CLASS17/01C5C5 @ Durbanville 11/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 1m209y Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Kenilworth 28/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 136 · HIGHER CLASS28/02C55 @ Durbanville 25/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 1285 @ Kenilworth 16/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 7f210y Sft 12616/0555 @ Durbanville 07/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 126C5 @ Kenilworth 05/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR - · 1m209y GS 132 · HIGHER CLASS5/08C5projClass-projected finish: 9th of 11
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-05Kenilworth?9th8th+1
2026-07-07Durbanville58th8th0
2026-05-16Kenilworth54th4th0
2026-03-25Durbanville56th6th0
2026-02-28Kenilworth?3rd2nd+1
2026-02-11Durbanville?6th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0911/0216/055/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 9-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -3.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/09/20256th4/179%38%-0.41
18/10/202510th28/10%0%0.00
17/01/20269th16/116%0%-0.16
11/02/20266th20/10%29%+0.29
28/02/20263rd10/147%75%+0.28
25/03/20266th13/266%29%-0.37
16/05/20264th4/179%50%-0.29
07/07/20268th17/255%0%-0.55
05/08/20269th8/158%33%-0.25