2
Bolt To Run
4yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 68
Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-08-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-07-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-07-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-06-23 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-06-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength81%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 12/05/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 27/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/06/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/06/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 07/07/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 21/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 11/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/09/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |