First Pitch
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 74
Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-08-19 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-17 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 11th | −3 |
| 2026-06-14 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-05-17 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-04-23 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 28/02/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 21/03/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 23/04/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 17/05/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 14/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 17/07/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 19/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 01/09/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |