1
Specialagentjonson
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 81
Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-06-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-04-04 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-02-20 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-01-30 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength54%
Delivery trend -5.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 12/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 09/01/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 30/01/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 78% | -0.05 |
| 20/02/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 78% | +0.07 |
| 04/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 63% | -0.06 |
| 10/06/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |