5
Sweet Tone
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 77
Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength76%
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/03/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 11% | -0.05 |
| 11/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 05/05/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 18/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 27/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 22/06/2026 | 6th | 13/8 | 91% | 17% | -0.75 |
| 22/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 19/08/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 08/09/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |