3
Take The Gold
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 81
Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength79%
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 20/02/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 06/03/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 20/03/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 30/06/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 17/08/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 08/09/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |