4
Grand Commander
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 81
Finger Lakes · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#6
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-26 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength42%
Delivery trend -6.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 16/01/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 13/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 71% | -0.17 |
| 26/02/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 12/04/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 24/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 83% | -0.10 |
| 22/05/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 14/09/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |