3
Post Facto
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 90
Finger Lakes · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-17 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength82%
Delivery trend +4.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 38% | -0.28 |
| 30/04/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 18/06/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 25/08/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 17/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 20/10/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 27/05/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 09/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 22/06/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 38% | -0.36 |