6
Hip Hop Dancer
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 58
Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 70y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
27%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-05-03 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 12th | 15th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength39%
Delivery trend -6.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/02/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 01/03/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 19/03/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 03/05/2026 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/06/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 06/07/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 25/08/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 08/09/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |