4
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3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 50
Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Saratoga | ? | 11th | 14th | −3 |
| 2026-08-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength44%
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 13/12/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 10/01/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 27/04/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 08/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 06/07/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 38% | -0.39 |
| 20/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 03/08/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 19/08/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |