7
The Gael
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 71
Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 70y
#6
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.4 /10 (raw 8.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-08-19 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2025-06-29 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-03-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-02-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +15.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/02/2025 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/03/2025 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 29/06/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/08/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 06/09/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |