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5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 55
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength8%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 26/11/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 27/05/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 15/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 29/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 10/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 24/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 09/09/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |