5
Cinnamon Sugar
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 71
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
56%
Place Prob
41%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Sam Houston Race Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Sam Houston Race Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-11-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-10 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength52%
Delivery trend -4.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 88% | -0.01 |
| 12/07/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 11/09/2025 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 10/10/2025 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 29% | -0.57 |
| 22/11/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 31/01/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 14/02/2026 | 7th | 11/4 | 86% | 14% | -0.71 |
| 28/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 26/08/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |