9
Hazard Pay
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 48
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#12
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength13%
Delivery trend +6.5% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/01/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 10/03/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 23/03/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 07/04/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 06/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 03/06/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 16/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 24/08/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 09/09/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |