11
Lollipops
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 55
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-08-06 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-07-03 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength67%
Delivery trend +4.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/2025 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 54% | -0.20 |
| 27/04/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 43% | -0.43 |
| 26/05/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 03/07/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 06/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 14/07/2026 | 9th | 10/3 | 82% | 11% | -0.71 |
| 29/07/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 26/08/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 09/09/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |