1
Pesadilla Chanel
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 57
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength8%
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 27/08/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 24/09/2025 | 4th | 10/11 | 95% | 50% | -0.45 |
| 21/10/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 03/11/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 10/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 24/08/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 09/09/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |