IvyArcIvyArc
4

Signifying Nothing

4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 62

Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

38%

Place Prob

34%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength79%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Finger Lakes 20/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 69 · 5f110y 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/10/2025 · OR 69 par20/10C5OR 69C5 @ Finger Lakes 04/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 63 · 6f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/11/2025 · OR 63 parC8 @ Aqueduct 14/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 57 · 6f Fas 123 · below its mark14/02/2026 · OR 57 par14/02C8OR 57C8 @ Aqueduct 08/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 53 · 6f 123 · below its mark08/03/2026 · OR 53 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 28/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 52 · 4f110y 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 52 par28/04C5OR 52C5 @ Finger Lakes 12/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 57 · 5f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 57 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 03/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 63 · 6f 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 63 par3/06C5OR 63C8 @ Finger Lakes 01/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 61 · 6f 124 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 61 parC8 @ Finger Lakes 15/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 62 · 6f Fas 124 · below its mark15/07/2026 · OR 62 par15/07C8OR 62projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-15Finger Lakes?3rd3rd0
2026-07-01Finger Lakes?1st1st0
2026-06-03Finger Lakes?7th4th+3
2026-05-12Finger Lakes?2nd-1th+3
2026-04-28Finger Lakes?3rd0th+3
2026-03-08Aqueduct?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/108/033/0615/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +14.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/10/20259th6/168%0%-0.68
04/11/20259th8/158%0%-0.58
14/02/20267th4/179%0%-0.79
08/03/20266th16/116%0%-0.16
28/04/20263rd4/179%50%-0.29
12/05/20262nd14/126%83%+0.57
03/06/20267th20/10%14%+0.14
01/07/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05
15/07/20263rd12/137%67%+0.30