7
Valentine Gift
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 64
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength66%
Delivery trend +6.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2025 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 20% | -0.68 |
| 11/05/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 15/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 29/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 15/07/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 88% | -0.05 |
| 10/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |
| 09/09/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 38% | -0.26 |