7
Breaking Stones
8yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 81
Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
50%
Place Prob
40%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength60%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 02/09/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 43% | -0.20 |
| 30/09/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 25/11/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 22/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 04/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 71% | -0.20 |
| 26/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 09/09/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 83% | -0.11 |