1
Tommy The Torch
9yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 69
Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength39%
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 12/05/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 10/06/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 13% | -0.45 |
| 27/06/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 30/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 17/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 09/09/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |